Five Capital Cities, Five Different Directions

The 30-Second VersionMelbourne continues to show the clearest moderation in its housing correction, while Sydney’s recent improvement has stalled but not reversed. Four-week moving averages are now Sydney -0.32%, Melbourne -0.21%, Brisbane -0.34%, Adelaide -0.29% and Perth -0.25%. Brisbane and Adelaide are deteriorating, with Adelaide recording its largest weekly decline of 2026 for the second consecutive week. Perth’s August improvement has stalled, although there is not yet the same evidence of an accelerating correction evident in Brisbane and Adelaide. Interest-rate risk has increased sharply, with financial markets pricing an 86% probability of a September RBA rate increase as at 18 September.Big PictureAustralia’s major housing markets are becoming increasingly divided. Melbourne continues to provide the clearest evidence that its rate of price decline is moderating, while Sydney remains weaker but is still performing better than during much of July and August. In contrast, Brisbane and Adelaide are showing increasingly clear evidence that their housing corrections are strengthening. Perth sits between these groups, with the improvement evident during August having stalled but not yet clearly reversed. This divergence is occurring as the prospect of another interest-rate increase has risen substantially, creating an important test for housing demand over the coming weeks.SydneyWeekly change: -0.33%. 4-Week Moving Average: -0.32%. Price: $1.184 million, down about $3,940 in the week. 2026 Cumulative Growth: -7.9%.Sydney has now recorded 28 consecutive weekly declines. The moving average deteriorated slightly this week, meaning the improvement recorded last week did not continue. However, it remains considerably better than the approximately -0.34% to -0.41% range that broadly characterised July to early September, suggesting the broader moderation has stalled rather than reversed. MelbourneWeekly change: -0.13%. 4-Week Moving Average: improved to -0.21%. Price: $771,400, down about $1,010 in the week. 2026 Cumulative Growth: -7.0%.Melbourne continues to provide the clearest evidence that the housing correction is moderating. The latest weekly decline was the smallest in approximately six months, while the moving average has improved from around -0.37% in mid-July to -0.21%, its strongest reading since early June. BrisbaneWeekly change: -0.41%. 4-Week Moving Average: deteriorated to -0.34%. Price: $1.054 million, down about $4,300 in the week. 2026 Cumulative Growth: +1.7%.Brisbane’s correction is becoming more pronounced. It has now recorded consecutive weekly declines of more than 0.4% for the first time in 2026, while its moving average has deteriorated from around -0.17% in late August to -0.34%, its weakest reading of the year. At the current four-week average rate of decline, Brisbane’s remaining 2026 price gain would be erased in around five weeks if that rate persisted. AdelaideWeekly change: -0.52%. 4-Week Moving Average: deteriorated to -0.29%. Price: approximately $922,200, down about $4,850 in the week. 2026 Cumulative Growth: +2.2%.Adelaide recorded its largest weekly decline of 2026 for the second consecutive week, following last week’s -0.39% fall. Its moving average has also deteriorated to its weakest level of the year. If the current four-week average rate of decline persisted, Adelaide’s remaining 2026 price gains would be erased in approximately seven to eight weeks. PerthWeekly change: -0.25%. 4-Week Moving Average: deteriorated to -0.25%. Price: approximately $972,900, down about $2,430 in the week. 2026 Cumulative Growth: +3.4%.Perth has now recorded 19 consecutive weekly declines. Its moving average has continued to deteriorate since late August after improving to around -0.18%. This suggests that the earlier moderation has stalled, although there is not yet sufficient evidence that Perth’s correction is accelerating to the same extent as Brisbane and Adelaide. What to Watch NextWhether Melbourne’s moving average continues its sustained improvement towards zero. Whether Sydney’s recent moderation resumes or its moving average begins deteriorating again. Whether the increasingly large declines in Brisbane and Adelaide persist, further strengthening their corrections. Whether Perth’s stalled improvement develops into a clearer deterioration in underlying momentum. The RBA’s 29 September decision, with financial markets pricing an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point increase as at 18 September.