Cash Rate Rises, As All Five Capitals Continue to Diverge

The 30-Second VersionMelbourne continues to show clear moderation in its housing correction, continuing its trajectory from Stagnation into Early RecoverySydney’s weekly decline has decreased slightly, potentially moving back to tentative Stagnation, however still remaining in Stagnation. Perth remains in Stagnation.Brisbane remains firmly in Downturn, whilst Adelaide’s Downturn continues to accelerate.Four-week moving averages are now Sydney -0.33% , Melbourne -0.17%, Brisbane -0.35%, Adelaide -0.34% and Perth -0.33%The RBA’s 25 basis point increase to 4.60% will further test the current direction of all five housing markets, with market pricing also pointing to the risk of further tightening.The Big PictureAustralia’s five major housing markets are now positioned at distinctly different stages of the housing cycle. Melbourne is continuing to provide the clearest evidence that its rate of decline is moderating, while Sydney potentially moves to tentative Stagnation. Brisbane remains firmly in Downturn, Adelaide’s correction is accelerating, and Perth remains in Stagnation despite a renewed deterioration in recent price momentum.The RBA increased the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its September meeting, further tightening borrowing conditions. This tightening cycle is likely to continue to weigh on housing demand at a time when dwelling prices are declining across all five capital cities. While the prospect of further rate increases points to continued downward pressure on demand, the magnitude and duration of the resulting impact on prices remain uncertain.SydneyTentative Stagnation Weekly change: -0.31%. 4-week moving average: -0.33%. Price: approximately $1.174 million, down about $3,685 in the week. 2026 cumulative growth: -8.7%.Sydney has now recorded 30 consecutive weekly declines. Weekly falls have decreased from 0.36 per cent to 0.31 per cent, while the four-week moving average has generally remained steady at negative 0.33 per cent over the past four weeks. This represents a mild improvement compared to August and early September and suggests that Sydney may be demonstrating a tentative move from Downturn to Stagnation. However, it is likely the effects of the recent interest rate rise, and the prospect of more to come, have not had an effect. MelbourneStagnation to Early Recovery continuesWeekly change: -0.17%. 4-week moving average: improved to -0.16%. Price: approximately $768,200, down about $1,300 in the week. 2026 cumulative growth: -7.4%.Melbourne continues to provide the clearest evidence that the correction is moderating. The four-week moving average has improved from negative 0.39 per cent in July to negative 0.16 per cent, its strongest reading since April. Prices are still falling, but the sustained improvement in recent price momentum is consistent with Melbourne moving from Stagnation into the early stages of Recovery. BrisbaneFirmly in DownturnWeekly change: -0.25%. 4-week moving average: -0.35%. Price: approximately $1.036 million, down about $2,700 in the week. 2026 cumulative growth: 0.0%.The latest weekly decline was smaller than the previous three weeks. Nevertheless, the four-week moving average deteriorated from negative 0.32 per cent to negative 0.35 per cent. Therefore, Brisbane remains firmly in Downturn, with its 2026 price gains erased.  AdelaideDownturn AcceleratingWeekly change: -0.14%. 4-week moving average: deteriorated to -0.34%. Price: approximately $918,900, down about $1,300 in the week. 2026 cumulative growth: +1.8%.Adelaide’s latest fall was smaller than the previous four weeks, but the four-week moving average deteriorated further to negative 0.34 per cent, its weakest level of 2026. The moving average has generally been deteriorating each week and confirms a substantial deterioration in price momentum since April. Adelaide’s remaining 2026 price gain has fallen to just 1.8 per cent, and along with the moving average provides increasingly clear evidence that its Downturn is accelerating.PerthStagnationWeekly change: -0.35%. 4-week moving average: deteriorated to -0.33%. Price: approximately $952,700, down about $3,400 in the week. 2026 cumulative growth: +1.3%.Perth has now experienced 21 consecutive weekly falls. The four-week moving average has deteriorated from negative 0.28 per cent to negative 0.33 per cent since last week. As the moving average shows, Perth remains in Stagnation. What to Watch Next  Whether Sydney’s recent deterioration becomes sustained and pushes the market more clearly from Stagnation towards Downturn. Whether Melbourne's improvement can survive higher borrowing costs or whether its movement into Early Recovery StallsWhether Brisbane and Adelaide experience a deeper Downturn as tighter monetary conditions place additional pressure on buyer demand.Whether Perth’s renewed short-term deterioration in short-term price momentum continues and begins to push the market from Stagnation towards Downturn.Whether financial-market pricing for further monetary tightening beyond September strengthens or recedes as new inflation and labour-market data become available.