Price Declines Widen in Four of Five Capitals After Rate Rise

The 30-Second VersionMelbourne still shows the clearest moderation in its housing correction, but the latest weekly declines suggest its improvement may be stalling.Four-week moving averages: Sydney −0.34%, Melbourne −0.17%, Brisbane −0.33%, Adelaide −0.30% and Perth −0.34%.Brisbane remains firmly in Downturn. Adelaide’s latest weekly falls have eased, although its broader downward trajectory remains pronounced.Perth has recorded 22 consecutive weekly declines. Only Perth (+0.95%) and Adelaide (+1.63%) retain positive growth for 2026.The RBA increased the cash rate to 4.60% in September, adding pressure to borrowing capacity and housing demand.Big PictureAll five major capital city housing markets are recording falling dwelling prices, but their corrections are developing differently. Melbourne’s broader rate of decline has moderated since July, although its latest weekly figures raise doubts about whether that improvement will continue. Sydney’s broader trend has also moderated, but weekly price declines remain substantial. Brisbane shows little sustained improvement, Adelaide’s shorter-term easing has yet to appear in its broader trend, and Perth’s recent price momentum has weakened. Higher interest rates create a further test for all five markets.Data note: Cotality has revised its historical Home Value Index series. The figures below use the revised data and may differ from earlier PropStac editions. Estimated dwelling prices are index-based estimates, not median sale prices.SydneyStagnation – risk of renewed DownturnWeekly change: −0.38%.  4-week moving average: −0.34%.  Price: $1,169,732.  2026 cumulative growth: −9.04%.Sydney’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.38 per cent last week, compared with a smaller decline of 0.31 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average deteriorated slightly from negative 0.33 per cent to negative 0.34 per cent, although it remains less negative than the approximately negative 0.44 per cent recorded in August. Sydney’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $1.170 million, down around $4,500 over the week. While the broader rate of decline has moderated since August, the latest figures suggest that downward pressure on dwelling prices persists. MelbourneStagnation – progress towards Recovery may be stallingWeekly change: −0.22%.  4-week moving average: −0.17%.  Price: $766,522.  2026 cumulative growth: −7.60%.Melbourne’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.22 per cent last week, compared with a smaller decline of 0.17 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average deteriorated slightly from negative 0.16 per cent to negative 0.17 per cent, although it remains considerably less negative than the approximately negative 0.39 per cent recorded in July. Melbourne’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $766,500, down around $1,700 over the week. While Melbourne continues to show the clearest improvement in price momentum among the five capital cities, the latest figures suggest that this moderation may be beginning to stall. BrisbaneDownturn – little evidence of sustained moderationWeekly change: −0.37%.  4-week moving average: −0.33%.  Price: $1,032,598.  2026 cumulative growth: −0.34%.Brisbane’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.37 per cent last week, compared with a smaller decline of 0.25 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average improved slightly from negative 0.35 per cent to negative 0.33 per cent, although it remains considerably more negative than the approximately negative 0.17 per cent recorded in late August. Brisbane’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $1.033 million, down around $3,800 over the week. With all its earlier 2026 price gains now erased, Brisbane remains firmly in Downturn, with little evidence of sustained moderation in price declines. AdelaideDownturn – early weekly easing, broader weakness persistsWeekly change: −0.20%.  4-week moving average: −0.30%.  Price: $916,994.  2026 cumulative growth: +1.63%.Adelaide’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.20 per cent last week, compared with a smaller decline of 0.14 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average improved slightly from negative 0.34 per cent to negative 0.30 per cent, although it remains considerably more negative than the approximately negative 0.16 per cent recorded in late August. Adelaide’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $917,000, down around $1,900 over the week. Despite the smaller weekly declines recorded recently, Adelaide remains firmly in Downturn. At the current four-week average rate of decline, its remaining 2026 price growth could be erased in approximately six weeks. PerthDownturn – continued weakness, broader trajectory little changedWeekly change: −0.35%.  4-week moving average: −0.34%.  Price: $949,339.  2026 cumulative growth: +0.95%.Perth’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.35 per cent last week, matching the decline recorded the previous week. The four-week moving average deteriorated slightly from negative 0.33 per cent to negative 0.34 per cent, considerably weaker than the approximately negative 0.18 per cent recorded in August. Perth’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $949,300, down around $3,300 over the week. Having recorded 22 consecutive weekly price declines, Perth remains firmly in correction, with only 0.95 per cent of its earlier 2026 price growth remaining. What to Watch NextWhether Melbourne’s latest increase in weekly price declines develops into a sustained reversal of its earlier improvement.Whether Sydney’s moving average resumes improving or deteriorates further under higher borrowing costs.Whether Brisbane’s persistently large weekly declines begin to moderate.Whether Adelaide’s recent smaller weekly declines feed through into its four-week average and broader fitted trend.Whether Perth’s renewed weakness erases its remaining positive 2026 growth.Whether further interest-rate increases reinforce the correction across the five markets.