Continued Decline Across All Capitals Ahead of RBA Meeting

The 30-Second VersionAll five capital cities recorded another weekly decline: Sydney (−0.35%), Melbourne (−0.17%), Brisbane (−0.61%), Adelaide (−0.39%) and Perth (−0.39%). Brisbane recorded its largest weekly fall of 2026.Four-week moving averages: Sydney −0.38%, Melbourne −0.18%, Brisbane −0.46%, Adelaide −0.31% and Perth −0.40%. Brisbane now has the weakest recent price momentum of the five cities.Property Clock: All five capital cities are in Downturn. Melbourne remains closest to Stagnation, although its improvement is showing signs of stalling. Perth's correction has moderated slightly, while Brisbane and Adelaide face increasingly pronounced downward pressure.The damage is mounting: Sydney has recorded 34 consecutive weekly declines, while Melbourne has recorded 35. Brisbane is just $8,037 above losing its million-dollar price tag, Adelaide has only 0.43% cumulative growth remaining for 2026, and Perth has already surrendered all its gains for the year.Interest rates: September inflation reached 4.3%, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.6%. With the RBA cash rate at 4.60%, financial markets were pricing a 78% probability of another 0.25 percentage point increase at the 3 November meeting, as at 30 October. Further tightening threatens to deepen the housing downturn across all five cities.Big PictureAustralia's five major capital city housing markets remain firmly in Downturn, with dwelling prices continuing to fall across all five cities and growing concerns that further interest rate increases could deepen the correction. Brisbane recorded its largest weekly price decline of 2026 at 0.61 per cent, while Adelaide is on the verge of surrendering all its gains for the year. Sydney continues to experience substantial weekly declines, and Perth has now erased all its earlier price growth, although its recent rate of decline has moderated slightly. Melbourne remains the strongest performer in terms of recent price momentum, with improving longer-term indicators suggesting that it is approaching Stagnation, although the latest figures raise concerns that this progress may be stalling. With inflation remaining elevated and financial markets increasingly expecting another RBA interest rate increase in November, the risks to housing demand are growing. Further increases in borrowing costs could intensify the downturn across all five markets, particularly if overseas migration also weakens significantly.SydneyDownturn – Persistent and substantial weekly price declines Weekly change: −0.35%. 4-week moving average: −0.38%. Price: $1,155,063. 2026 cumulative growth: −10.30%.Sydney's estimated dwelling price declined by 0.35 per cent last week, following a decline of 0.37 per cent the previous week. This marks 34 consecutive weekly price declines, with dwelling values falling by approximately $4,100 over the latest week. The four-week moving average deteriorated slightly to negative 0.38 per cent, indicating that downward price pressure remains substantial despite the marginal improvement in weekly growth. Cumulative weekly price growth for 2026 has now fallen to negative 10.30 per cent, marking a significant milestone in Sydney's housing correction. With the prospect of further interest rate increases threatening housing demand, there is little evidence that Sydney is approaching Stagnation. MelbourneDownturn – Approaching Stagnation, but further interest rate increases threaten to reverse recent improvementsWeekly change: −0.17%. 4-week moving average: −0.18%. Price: $763,572. 2026 cumulative growth: −7.98%.Melbourne's recent improvement in dwelling price growth has proved short-lived, with estimated dwelling prices declining by 0.17 per cent last week, compared with just 0.09 per cent the previous week. This marks 35 consecutive weekly price declines, with dwelling values falling by approximately $1,300 over the latest week. Although the four-week moving average remains at negative 0.18 per cent, considerably better than the approximately negative 0.37 per cent recorded in July, the recent improvement in price momentum appears to be stalling. Melbourne's implied 12-week dwelling price has continued to rise, suggesting that the broader correction is becoming less severe. However, the renewed prospect of further interest rate increases threatens to reverse this progress, leaving Melbourne vulnerable to slipping back into a more pronounced Downturn before reaching Stagnation. BrisbaneDownturn – Accelerating weekly price declines and deteriorating momentum Weekly change: −0.61%. 4-week moving average: −0.46%. Price: $1,008,037. 2026 cumulative growth: −2.74%.Brisbane's housing market has suffered its largest weekly price decline of 2026, with estimated dwelling prices plunging by 0.61 per cent, following a 0.49 per cent decline the previous week. The four-week moving average has deteriorated sharply to negative 0.46 per cent, making Brisbane the weakest of the five capital cities in terms of recent price momentum. The latest decline wiped approximately $6,200 from the estimated dwelling price, leaving Brisbane just $8,037 above the million-dollar threshold. Having peaked at approximately $1.095 million in April, dwelling prices have now fallen by around $87,000, erasing all the gains recorded earlier in 2026. With cumulative weekly price growth now at negative 2.74 per cent and the prospect of further interest rate increases threatening housing demand, Brisbane's correction is accelerating, with little evidence that the market is approaching Stagnation.AdelaideDownturn – Renewed weekly price declines threaten to erase the remaining gains recorded during 2026Weekly change: −0.39%. 4-week moving average: −0.31%. Price: $906,016. 2026 cumulative growth: +0.43%.Adelaide's estimated dwelling price declined by 0.39 per cent last week, following a decline of 0.40 per cent the previous week. Although the latest weekly decline was marginally smaller, the four-week moving average deteriorated from negative 0.24 per cent to negative 0.31 per cent, indicating that downward price pressure has intensified. Adelaide's estimated dwelling price fell by approximately $3,560 over the week to $906,016, leaving it around $44,400 below its June peak of $950,378. More importantly, cumulative weekly price growth for 2026 has fallen to just 0.43 per cent, with virtually all the gains recorded during the first half of the year now erased. The deterioration in recent price momentum, together with the prospect of further interest rate increases, suggests that Adelaide remains firmly in Downturn, with no evidence of an approaching transition towards Stagnation.PerthDownturn – Persistent weekly price declines have erased all gains for 2026Weekly change: −0.39%. 4-week moving average: −0.40%. Price: $927,231. 2026 cumulative growth: −1.39%.Perth's estimated dwelling price declined by 0.39 per cent last week, compared with a decline of 0.36 per cent the previous week. This marks 25 consecutive weekly price declines, with dwelling values falling by approximately $3,650 over the latest week. The four-week moving average deteriorated marginally to negative 0.40 per cent, although it remains less negative than the approximately negative 0.49 per cent recorded in September. Perth's estimated dwelling price has now fallen to $927,231, approximately $92,700 below its May peak of $1,019,959. With cumulative weekly price growth for 2026 now at negative 1.39 per cent, Perth has surrendered all its earlier gains and moved further into negative territory. Although the recent moderation in its four-week moving average suggests that downward pressure may be easing slightly, weekly price declines remain substantial. Perth therefore remains firmly in Downturn, with little evidence of an imminent transition towards Stagnation, particularly given the prospect of further interest rate increases.What to Watch NextWhether Melbourne's recent improvement in price momentum has stalled, or whether smaller weekly declines resume and bring the market closer to Stagnation.Whether Sydney's persistent weekly declines begin to moderate after 34 consecutive weeks of falling dwelling prices and cumulative weekly price growth reaching negative 10.30 per cent.Whether Brisbane's accelerating price declines continue, potentially pushing its estimated dwelling price below $1 million for the first time this year.Whether Adelaide's deteriorating four-week moving average continues to erode its remaining 0.43 per cent cumulative growth for 2026, potentially pushing the city into negative territory.Whether Perth's recent moderation in its four-week moving average can be sustained, or whether substantial weekly price declines continue to deepen its correction.The RBA's interest rate decision on 3 November, following September inflation of 4.3 per cent and trimmed mean inflation of 3.6 per cent. A further increase in borrowing costs could intensify downward pressure on housing demand across all five cities, particularly if overseas migration also weakens significantly.Disclaimer: This publication is intended to provide general information only. It does not take into account the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. You should consider the appropriateness of this information in relation to your personal circumstances before making any investment decision. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, no warranty is given as to its correctness, completeness, or reliability.