Melbourne Steadies as Rate Rise Risk Builds

The 30-Second VersionAll five capital cities recorded another weekly decline. Sydney (−0.37%), Melbourne (−0.09%), Brisbane (−0.49%), Adelaide (−0.40%) and Perth (−0.36%).Four-week moving averages: Sydney −0.37%, Melbourne −0.18%, Brisbane −0.37%, Adelaide −0.24% and Perth −0.39%.Property Clock: Melbourne and Sydney remain in Stagnation, with Melbourne showing the strongest signs of improvement. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth remain in Downturn, although Perth's longer-term indicators continue to improve.Sydney has recorded 33 consecutive weekly declines. Only Adelaide (+1.00%) and Perth (+0.11%) retain positive cumulative growth for 2026, with Perth on the verge of losing its remaining gains.Interest rates: The RBA cash rate stands at 4.60%. Market expectations of a November increase have strengthened sharply, with the implied probability reaching 56% on 23 October. The inflation figures due on 28 October will be critical ahead of the RBA's 3 November meeting.Big PictureAustralia’s five major capital city housing markets remain under considerable downward pressure, with dwelling prices continuing to decline across all five cities. Melbourne is showing the clearest signs of moderation, supported by improving longer-term indicators and a smaller weekly price decline. Sydney’s Housing Cycle Indicator also continues to improve, although substantial weekly price declines persist. Brisbane remains firmly in Downturn, with prices falling at a remarkably consistent rate since August, while Adelaide’s broader indicators continue to deteriorate. Perth presents conflicting signals, with an improving Housing Cycle Indicator contrasting with persistently weak weekly price momentum and virtually all its 2026 price gains now erased. Elevated borrowing costs and the growing possibility of another RBA interest rate increase in November present additional risks, particularly if overseas migration also weakens significantly.SydneyStagnation – Improving longer-term indicators overshadowed by persistent price declines Weekly change: −0.37%. 4-week moving average: −0.37%. Price: $1,160,417. 2026 cumulative growth: −9.84%.Sydney’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.37 per cent last week, following a decline of 0.42 per cent the previous week. This marks 33 consecutive weekly price declines, with dwelling values falling by approximately $4,350 over the latest week. The four-week moving average remained unchanged at negative 0.37 per cent, indicating that downward price pressure remains substantial despite the slightly smaller weekly decline. Although Sydney’s Housing Cycle Indicator continues to improve, recent weekly price movements provide little evidence of a sustained moderation in the correction. With cumulative price growth now at negative 9.84 per cent for 2026, Sydney is approaching a 10 per cent decline for the year. MelbourneStagnation – Improving longer-term indicators suggest movement towards RecoveryWeekly change: −0.09%. 4-week moving average: −0.18%. Price: $763,968. 2026 cumulative growth: −7.93%.Melbourne’s estimated dwelling price declined by just 0.09 per cent last week, compared with a larger decline of 0.25 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average improved slightly from negative 0.20 per cent to negative 0.18 per cent, remaining considerably less negative than the approximately negative 0.39 per cent recorded in July. Melbourne’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $764,000, down just $660 over the week. Importantly, its Housing Cycle Indicator continues to improve, while its implied 12-week dwelling price has been rising despite ongoing declines in actual prices. Together, these indicators suggest that Melbourne’s broader correction is moderating, although further weeks of smaller price declines are needed to confirm sustained progress towards Recovery. BrisbaneDownturn – Persistent price declines with little evidence of moderationWeekly change: −0.49%. 4-week moving average: −0.37%. Price: $1,023,679. 2026 cumulative growth: −1.21%.Brisbane’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.49 per cent last week, compared with a decline of 0.38 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average deteriorated from negative 0.32 per cent to negative 0.37 per cent, although it has remained consistently between negative 0.30 and negative 0.40 per cent since early August. Brisbane’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $1.024 million, down around $5,040 over the week. With cumulative price growth for 2026 now at negative 1.21 per cent, Brisbane has surrendered all its earlier gains and remains firmly in Downturn. The persistence of substantial weekly declines, together with little improvement in its broader Housing Cycle Indicator, suggests that the correction is continuing at a relatively stable but significant rate, with no convincing evidence of an approaching turning point.AdelaideDownturn – Continued deterioration with no indication of approaching StagnationWeekly change: −0.40%. 4-week moving average: −0.24%. Price: $911,185. 2026 cumulative growth: +1.00%.Adelaide’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.40 per cent last week, compared with a smaller decline of 0.24 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average deteriorated slightly from negative 0.23 per cent to negative 0.24 per cent, although it remains less negative than the levels recorded in September. Adelaide’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $911,200, down around $3,650 over the week. The latest four weekly declines have become progressively larger, suggesting renewed weakness in short-term price momentum. More importantly, Adelaide’s Housing Cycle Indicator continues to deteriorate, while its implied 12-week price decline has widened to 6.95 per cent. With cumulative growth for 2026 now reduced to just 1.00 per cent, Adelaide remains firmly in Downturn, with little evidence that its broader correction is approaching moderation.PerthDownturn – Improving longer-term indicators suggest gradual movement towards StagnationWeekly change: −0.36%. 4-week moving average: −0.39%. Price: $941,299. 2026 cumulative growth: +0.11%.Perth’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.36 per cent last week, compared with a larger decline of 0.49 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average improved marginally from negative 0.40 per cent to negative 0.39 per cent, but remains considerably weaker than the approximately negative 0.18 per cent recorded in August. Perth’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $941,300, down around $3,400 over the week. With cumulative growth for 2026 reduced to just 0.11 per cent, virtually all the gains recorded earlier in the year have been erased. Although Perth’s Housing Cycle Indicator continues to improve and its fitted downward trajectory is becoming less pronounced, these developments have yet to translate into sustained moderation in weekly price declines. Perth therefore remains firmly in Downturn, with further evidence needed before a transition towards Stagnation can be confirmed.What to Watch NextWhether Melbourne’s smaller weekly decline and improving longer-term indicators develop into sustained moderation towards Recovery.Whether Sydney’s persistent weekly declines begin to ease, bringing actual price movements into line with its improving Housing Cycle Indicator.Whether Brisbane’s substantial weekly declines, consistently around 0.3 to 0.4 per cent since August, finally begin to moderate.Whether Adelaide’s increasingly large weekly declines and deteriorating Housing Cycle Indicator continue to erode its remaining 2026 price growth.Whether Perth’s improving longer-term indicators translate into smaller weekly price declines before its remaining 0.11 per cent growth for 2026 disappears.The September quarter inflation release on 28 October and the RBA’s interest rate decision on 3 November, particularly given strengthening expectations of another increase, alongside any significant changes in overseas migration.Disclaimer: This publication is intended to provide general information only. It does not take into account the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. You should consider the appropriateness of this information in relation to your personal circumstances before making any investment decision. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, no warranty is given as to its correctness, completeness, or reliability.