Falls Deepen Across Capital Cities

The 30-Second VersionAll five capital cities recorded another weekly decline. Sydney (−0.42%), Melbourne (−0.25%), Brisbane (−0.38%), Adelaide (−0.24%) and Perth (−0.49%).Four-week moving averages: Sydney −0.37%, Melbourne −0.20%, Brisbane −0.32%, Adelaide −0.23% and Perth −0.40%.Melbourne and Sydney remain in Stagnation, but recent price momentum has weakened. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth remain in Downturn.Perth has recorded 23 consecutive weekly declines, with Sydney recording 32 consecutive weeks of decline. Only Adelaide (+1.40%) and Perth (+0.47%) have retained positive growth for 2026.The RBA cash rate stands at 4.60%. Westpac expects a further increase to 4.85% by December, while financial markets currently favour no change in November.Westpac Consumer Sentiment fell 4.7% to 80.4 in October, highlighting growing household pessimism and continued weakness in housing buyer confidence.Big PictureAustralia’s five major capital city housing markets remain under downward pressure. Broader Housing Cycle Indicators have improved or flattened in several cities, but the latest weekly price movements tell a less encouraging story. Melbourne continues to show the clearest moderation in its fitted downward trajectory, although its recent weekly declines are becoming larger. Sydney also faces renewed short-term weakness. Brisbane’s declines remain remarkably consistent at a substantial negative rate, while Adelaide and Perth have recorded a deterioration in recent price momentum. Elevated borrowing costs and weak consumer confidence add to the risks, particularly if overseas migration were to fall significantly.SydneyStagnation – renewed risk of movement towards DownturnWeekly change: −0.42%.  4-week moving average: −0.37%.  Price: $1,164,767.  2026 cumulative growth: −9.46%.Sydney’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.42 per cent last week, compared with a smaller decline of 0.38 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average deteriorated from negative 0.34 per cent to negative 0.37 per cent, although it remains less negative than the approximately negative 0.44 per cent recorded in August. Sydney’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $1.165 million, down around $5,000 over the week. While the broader rate of decline has moderated since August, the latest figures suggest that downward pressure on dwelling prices is strengthening again.MelbourneStagnation – progress towards Recovery showing signs of stallingWeekly change: −0.25%.  4-week moving average: −0.20%.  Price: $764,628.  2026 cumulative growth: −7.84%.Melbourne’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.25 per cent last week, compared with a smaller decline of 0.22 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average deteriorated from negative 0.17 per cent to negative 0.20 per cent, although it remains considerably less negative than the approximately negative 0.39 per cent recorded in July. Melbourne’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $764,600, down around $1,900 over the week. While Melbourne continues to show the clearest moderation in its broader rate of price decline among the five capital cities, the latest figures suggest that recent downward price momentum is strengthening again. BrisbaneDownturn – substantial and persistent price declinesWeekly change: −0.38%.  4-week moving average: −0.32%.  Price: $1,028,722.  2026 cumulative growth: −0.72%.Brisbane’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.38 per cent last week, compared with a decline of 0.37 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average improved slightly from negative 0.33 per cent to negative 0.32 per cent, although it has remained consistently negative at approximately 0.3 to 0.4 per cent for more than two months. Brisbane’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $1.029 million, down around $3,900 over the week. With cumulative price growth for 2026 now at negative 0.72 per cent, Brisbane remains firmly in Downturn, with little evidence of sustained moderation in price declines.AdelaideDownturn – early easing remains unconfirmedWeekly change: −0.24%.  4-week moving average: −0.23%.  Price: $914,831.  2026 cumulative growth: +1.40%.Adelaide’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.24 per cent last week, compared with a smaller decline of 0.20 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average improved from negative 0.30 per cent to negative 0.23 per cent, partly because an unusually large weekly decline of 0.52 per cent dropped out of the calculation. Adelaide’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $914,800, down around $2,200 over the week. Despite the improvement in the moving average, Adelaide’s latest three weekly declines have become progressively larger, suggesting that downward price momentum may be strengthening again. Adelaide remains firmly in Downturn, with cumulative price growth for 2026 now at just 1.40 per cent.PerthDownturn – renewed weakness in recent price momentumWeekly change: −0.49%.  4-week moving average: −0.40%.  Price: $944,711.  2026 cumulative growth: +0.47%.Perth’s estimated dwelling price declined by 0.49 per cent last week, compared with a smaller decline of 0.35 per cent the previous week. The four-week moving average deteriorated from negative 0.34 per cent to negative 0.40 per cent, considerably weaker than the approximately negative 0.18 per cent recorded in August. Perth’s estimated dwelling price is now approximately $944,700, down around $4,600 over the week. Having recorded 23 consecutive weekly price declines, Perth remains firmly in correction, with only 0.47 per cent of its earlier 2026 price growth remaining. The latest figures suggest that downward pressure on dwelling prices is intensifying again.What to Watch NextWhether Melbourne’s latest sequence of larger weekly declines stalls its broader improvement.Whether Sydney’s deteriorating four-week average eventually flattens or reverses its Housing Cycle Indicator.Whether Brisbane’s persistent weekly declines near 0.3–0.4 per cent begin to moderate.Whether Adelaide’s three progressively larger weekly declines reverse the recent improvement in its moving average.Whether Perth’s 0.49 per cent weekly fall marks renewed acceleration and erases its remaining 2026 growth.The inflation release on 28 October and the RBA decision on 3 November, alongside any significant changes in overseas migration.Disclaimer: This publication is intended to provide general information only. It does not take into account the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. You should consider the appropriateness of this information in relation to your personal circumstances before making any investment decision. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, no warranty is given as to its correctness, completeness, or reliability.